Some time ago, a Catholic friend mentioned a recent incident. After Mass one Sunday, he was chatting with a young lady - a Catholic - and the subject of population arose. She was quite convinced the world is becoming overpopulated and that millions would starve in the near future because of lack of food. She believed a law should be made allowing only one child per family, as in China.

It occurred to me that many people, because of propaganda, probably think this way, so I decided to do a little research on the world population situation at present. Most of the articles I read were written by Catholics, condemning contraception and abortion. Of course I completely agree with them, but I felt sure many people would cast them aside as "the usual Roman Catholic propaganda." So, I resisted the temptation to write on the subject, much as I felt impelled to do so.

However, I must thank The Globe and Mail for printing in mid-December an article entitled, "Is the population explosion over?" It was reprinted from the New York Times Magazine and the writer was Ben Wattenberg, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, moderator of the PBS Program and author of "Birth Dearth." The article is frightening, not because of population explosion but because of population implosion.

Population bomb a dud

Having mentioned the best selling book, The Population Bomb, written by Paul Ehrlich (1968), which states that the human race will "breed itself into oblivion", and the statement of the Club of Rome - later retracted - that we would soon run out of resources, the writer proceeds to give the truth about the present population in the entire world. As the article covers almost an entire page of the newspaper, I can give only the more salient facts. Here are some of them: - From 1950 to 1955, the global total fertility rate was five children per woman. This was well above the 2.1 children per woman necessary to replace the population of a country. This continued until, by 1975-1980 fertility had fallen to four children per woman. Fifteen years later, it had fallen to three, and now the total fertility is estimated at 2.8 children per woman and continuing to sink.

But, one might ask, "What about the birth rate in the less developed countries? Is it not teeming?" Even there, according to the article, "The fuse is sputtering." The fertility rate in 1965 to 1970 was six children per woman. Now it is three and falling more quickly than ever before in demographic history.

According to Mr. Wattenberg's research, European birth rates in the 1980s, already at a record-breaking low, fell another 20 per cent in this decade to 1.4. Italy, a "Catholic" country, has a fertility rate of 1.2 children per women - the lowest in the world and the lowest national rate ever recorded. I remember reading a few years ago that, for the first time in history, Italy had more coffins than cradles in that particular year. Japanese and Russian birth rates are 1.4 and, surprisingly, over three decades, Moslem Tunisia has fallen from 7.2 to 2.9.

Fertility rates are falling in many, though not all, sub-Saharan African nations, including Kenya, which was once regarded as the premier demographic show. Fertility will most likely drop below replacement level in many less-developed countries. It already has in 19 of them, including Cuba, China, Thailand and, probably, Brazil. In the United States, the birth rates have been below replacement for 25 years. There was a slight increase in the 1980s, but rates have fallen for five of the past six years. The U.S. National Centre for Health Statistics reports solidly lower levels for early 1997, which will continue the generally downward trend since 1991. In the U.S. in 1790, women were bearing an average of 7.7 children. Since 1972 the fertility has averaged 1.9.

One of the main factors pushing this transition is urbanization - reflecting the shift from wanting more children to help on the farm, to wanting fewer mouths to feed in the city.

Among the many other factors are more education for women, legal abortion, greater acceptance of homosexuality, better contraception (including "Morning After pills" endorsed by new U.S. Food and Drug administration guidelines), later marriage - more divorce and vastly lower infant mortality rates. When parents know their children will survive, fertility rates plummet.

It is significant that on December 9, 1997, the Toronto Star published an article by Olivia Ward on the subject of sex education in Russia. "Nationalists as well as hardline communists are joining the campaign against contraception, calling it genocidal," the article reported, "...some Duman members are calling for legislative measures to increase the number of births, favoring draconian steps to restrict birth control as well as abortion."

Just when I thought I had finished this article, I spotted on my desk a Special Report from Human Life International. In it, Father Paul Marx, an expert on the subject of pro-life, speaks of a recent visit to Germany and Austria. Here is a quote: "The Austrians' and Germans' cars are beautiful and shiny new. The streets are spotless, the food couldn't be better and the luxurious clothing and other products in the windows couldn't be more attractive. All seems well. But, alas, death stalks Austria and Germany - in fact all of eastern and western Europe. The 35 nations of Europe are dying because of low birth rates.

One to one ratio

"The best estimates from reliable pro-lifers, including doctors, say there is at least one abortion for every birth; of course we mean surgical abortion, not the very many more caused by the Pill and the Morning After Pill."

The Globe and Mail article ends on a sad note. "Eventually demography blends into psychology. There is likely to be a lot more personal sadness ahead. There will be missing children and missing grandchildren. Lots of people without brothers or sisters, uncles, aunts, children or grandchildren - lonelier people. During the most affluent moment in history, many young people say they can't afford to have two children. People well into their 60s look vainly for grandchildren.  Clergymen say the saddest funerals are those in which the deceased have no offspring. The article asks this pertinent question, "Will the rest of the United States look like Manhattan, which, except for a former leper colony in Hawaii, has the country's largest concentration of people living alone?"