Unity of the right in Quebec?

An agreement was finally reached on Oct. 15 between the leaders of the two main right-wing political parties in Canada. It is good news, because without this unity the reign of the Liberal party will continue without any serious opposition. There is still a long way to go, however, before this new coalition can become a real adversary to the Liberals, to be led by Paul Martin.

It is clear that Quebec must be a part of this new Conservative Party of Canada for it to be a serious alternative. Martin is more popular in Quebec than Jean Chretien, and the Bloc Quebecois has been affected by another crisis since the recent defeat of the PQ. Without a serious conservative opposition, the Liberals should get more than 50 seats in Quebec (according to recent polls, they would get 50 per cent of the vote). If the Conservatives do not get any seats in Quebec, the new coalition will be at a distinct disadvantage.

The last time the Conservatives won a federal election, under Brian Mulroney, they had to count on the strong support of Quebec. Those Quebec votes were not clearly conservative. There are only two real political families in Quebec: the Liberals and the nationalists. The Conservatives have no roots in the province. In 1984, Mulroney won a majority of seats with the "Beau risque" of Rene Levesque, leader of the PQ. The only solution for the new Conservative party is collaboration with the conservative nationalists of Quebec.

Is there such a thing as a "conservative nationalist" electorate in Quebec? Not clearly. The Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ), led by Mario Dumont, at the provincial level is the beginning of such a political entity. Though disappointing, the last provincial election in June gave almost 20 per cent of the vote and four seats to the ADQ. With the possible collapse of the Bloc at the federal level, the Conservatives could get a little bit more.

In the last federal election, the Alliance got around 15 per cent in Quebec under Stockwell Day, who was very open to the traditional demands of Quebec nationalists. However, the party was seen as foreign, dominated by the West and without any roots in Quebec. The Quebec lieutenants were politicians without credibility. The Progressive Conservative party got less of the popular vote than the Alliance, but was able to win one seat (Andre Bachand in Richmond-Arthabaska). This single Quebec Progressive Conservative party MP is opposed to the unity of the right because he, like Joe Clark, is afraid of the social conservatives of the Alliance. Bachand is a red Tory who will probably become a Liberal MP soon for career reasons.

Are there, in fact, social conservatives in Quebec? Yes, but they are not really organized as a group and they do not have a strong public voice. We find some of them obviously in the pro-life movement, particularly in Campagne Quebec-Vie, in the ADQ (which is not socially conservative as a party), in the evangelical Christian churches and in a new quarterly journal, … gards (which is the first social-conservative intellectual publication launched in Quebec since 1960).

It is crucial that those conservatives be involved in that new party, because Quebec will have an important role in the choice of the next leader, even if the party does not have many members in Quebec. According to rules of the Progressive Conservative party that will apply for the new party, every riding will have a delegate, notwithstanding the number of members. Quebec will therefore have 75 delegates out of 301. The leaders of the new party will not be able to ignore Quebec, as did Stephen Harper of the to-be-defunct Alliance. Quebecoís social conservatives should try to find a pro-life candidate who could be a lieutenant to the national leader and a warrant to keep the values in the program of the new party, particularly regarding abortion and same-sex "marriage."